CH-24-C058 - Whole-Building Calibrated Energy Performance Simulation towards Energy Sufficiency, Climate Resilience and Net Zero Carbon: Case Study of a Medium-Sized Hotel

Operational energy consumption of buildings differs from design-stage calculations (Performance Gap) because the effect of occupant energy behaviour is not considered in the prescriptive approach. The prescriptive approach uses simple steady-state models and simplifying assumptions to calculate regulated loads. In view of the pivotal role of very low energy buildings in the 1.5⁰C/34.7⁰F mandate, performance-based whole-building calibrated dynamic simulation models that use the actual post-occupation features of the building and its energy system, are required to close the Performance Gap and progress the building towards Net Zero. This paper investigates the energy performance of an existing medium-sized hotel in London, UK under current and future midway CMIP6 SSP2-4.5 climate scenario for 2030, 2040, 2050 and 2080. The future year weather files were generated from Meteotest®-Meteonorm-8.1.4.25305™ software RCP4.5 module and used for dynamic simulation of the energy model in IESVE® proprietary software. Calibration of the model with hourly actual electricity consumption for a year was done and validated according to IPMVP protocol (ASHRAE 14: 2014 criteria). The values of model calibration validation criteria; Normalized Mean Bias Error (NMBE) of -9.51% and Co-efficient of Variation of the Root Mean Squared Error (CvRMSE) of 15.24% were within the acceptance range. The work informs the development of a climate-resilient clean energy system to increase the Renewable Energy share, and hence decarbonization of electricity and heating in the building towards Net Zero by 2050.