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A telephone survey was conducted among a national sample of 492 large HVAC dealer/contractors to elicit estimates of residential heat pump replacement age and other related issues. Similar data for unitary air conditioners and gas furnaces were collected to provide a relative perspective.

The sample selection and interviewing were designed to produce unbiased results and to provide appropriate data reliability for summaries at the national level and for three geographic regions (north, south, and west). The survey was conducted between December 4 and December 213, 1985. The key findings of the survey:

The dealers’ average estimate of age at replacement for unitary air-conditioning units is 12.1 years; air-conditioner compressors, 8.8 years; heat pump units, 10.9 years; heat pump compressors, 8.0 years; and gas furnaces, 16.3 years.

Eighty-six percent of the dealers believe that heat pump reliability has been improved over the past few years, but slightly less than 50% expect the service life of heat pumps being installed today to be materially longer than that of the past.

Only about 26% of the dealers use life-cycle cost analysis, and the average replacement age estimates for heat pumps used in customer discussions is 11.2 years. Estimates indicate that the installed cost of replacement compressors is 40-45% of the cost of a total new unit.