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Based on an article published in the Journal of the American Water Works Association in January 2004, "Rapid Analytical Techniques for Drinking water Security Investigations" (States et al), this discusssion puts forth a framework for hazard detection and judgment of evidence. It is based on the question asked in this discussion about how likely a positive result from analytical testing will correctly reflect the presence of a hazard in the drinking water supply. Includes 5 references, figures, appendix.