INTRODUCTION

This report includes medium-term forecasts of air traffic in the Transpacific area, in the Asia/Pacific region, and for selected Transpacific and Asia/Pacific city-pair markets through to 2014. The report also contains a long-term forecast with a horizon to the year 2030, including a short-term forecast for 2010-2014 and intermediate forecasts for each of the years 2020 and 2030. Forecasts are provided for total passenger traffic and aircraft movements, and in the case of the aggregate Transpacific market, also for peak hour movements on selected route groups for the year 2014. The peak hour analysis is based on a detailed review of traffic during a typical July week of 2009 and 2010, summarized in Appendix B.

These forecasts were produced by the APA TFG at its fifteenth meeting, held in Bangkok from 1 to 8 November 2010. Representatives from Canada, Japan, Singapore and Thailand participated at the meeting (list of participants appears in Appendix A). In addition to inputs from the participants, traffic and financial data for the Transpacific market were received from the US FAA and Hong Kong FIR data were provided by the Hong Kong SAR CAD. The Group's activities are serviced and coordinated by the ICAO Secretariat at Headquarters, in close consultation with the ICAO Asia and Pacific Regional Office.

The economic downturn experienced in 1997/1998 in the Asia/Pacific region had major impacts on traffic levels, but the region regained economic strength. This was evidenced by almost 5 per cent growth in total Asia/Pacific region GDP in 2000. Consequently, traffic in the Transpacific and the Intra-Asia/Pacific regions in 2000 increased by 6.8 and 5.8 per cent, respectively. Tourism in the region also benefited from the recovery and experienced high growth rates. It was against this background that the tenth meeting of the APA TFG revised the Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific forecasts in June 2001. In addition, forecasts of aircraft movements to the year 2015, for the Intra-Asia/Pacific route group, were introduced for the first time. The Group also considered ways and means of addressing the requirements identified by the ICAO Asia/Pacific Air Navigation Planning and Implementation Regional Group (APANPIRG) and its relevant sub-groups.

The events of 11 September 2001 in the United States precipitated a sudden drop in traffic and thereby invalidated the forecasts which had been developed by the Group in June 2001, particularly as weaknesses in the global economy began to emerge and as consumer confidence eroded.

In light of the above developments, the eleventh APA TFG meeting concentrated primarily on the revision of the Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific forecasts together with forecasts of aircraft movements to the year 2015 for the Intra-Asia/Pacific region.

The outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) had devastating effects on air traffic to, from and within the affected areas in the first half of 2003. Reported monthly figures suggest that the drop in passenger traffic reached its lowest in May after which it started a steady recovery. It is estimated that in 2003, passenger traffic on Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific routes dropped by some 10 per cent. It was against this background that the twelfth meeting of the APA TFG focussed on the revision of the medium- and long-term forecasts for the Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific markets; the horizon of the long-term forecasts being extended to the year 2020.

The thirteenth meeting of the Group focussed on the update of the forecasts developed during the previous meeting of the Group, taking into account the developments which have taken place on both Transpacific and Intra-Asia air transport markets since mid-2004.

The forecasts for the Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific markets were updated by the Group at its fourteenth meeting, in view of the developments in these markets up to mid-2008, including the surge in the fuel prices and the slowdown in the economy. Also, the time horizon of the long-term forecasts was extended up to the year 2025.

At its fifteenth meeting, the Group updated air traffic forecasts for these two markets taking into account the impact of the 2008/2009 unprecedented economic recession on air traffic developments and extended the forecast time horizon to 2030. The Group was briefed by the ICAO Secretariat on the preliminary results of ICAO long-term forecasts developed recently by applying a new methodology and it noted that the forecasts will be published in early 2011. These preliminary results were taken into account by the Group in the development of the forecasts for the Transpacific and Intra- Asia/Pacific markets.

Apart from ICAO Member States, the primary users of these area forecasts are expected to be air navigation service providers in the regions concerned and planning groups, especially APANPIRG. This information is also likely to be of interest to airports and airlines of the regions concerned to assist in their planning processes. The format and content of reports, as well as the forecasts of the APA TFG will be modified progressively to respond to the requirements of primary users, such as APANPIRG, and assist the progressive implementation of CNS/ATM systems in the region. In that context, the Group received brief information about the recent APANPIFG meeting held in early September 2008 in the premises of the ICAO Regional Office in Bangkok. The APANPIRG had confirmed that the forecasts produced by the APA TFG are broadly used in the planning process of the air navigation facilities and services of the region.

At its fifteenth meeting, the APA TFG also initially considered two proposals put forward by the Bangkok Office Secretariat that the Group develop detailed forecasts of aircraft movements by specific air traffic service (ATS) routes and forecasts of aircraft movements in the Asia/Pacific airports, the latter by aircraft type.

With respect to the first proposal, the Group believed that it is well positioned to develop forecasts for specific ATS routes, provided States in the two regions ensure adequate resources and information required. However, the task is extensive and at present it would not be possible for the Group to carry it out without an access to appropriate databases and with the resources being at its disposal, unless the scope of work of the Group would be revised by eliminating certain present tasks. It suggested that the proposal and recommendation that the work be carried out by the APA TFG be submitted by the Bangkok Office Secretariat to APANPIRG for consideration at its next meeting. Should APANPIRG approve the proposal and recommendation, an access to appropriate databases and additional resources have to be ensured in order for the Group to carry out the proposed task. The additional resources would be an important factor, especially in case the Group is required to continue with the full scope of its current assignments. Once the new task is approved, the Group would work out a methodology to develop such forecasts and generate them, initially for a sample of routes for which data would be available. The number of routes would be gradually expanded should the required data become available to the Group.

Bearing in mind the number of airports in the Asia/Pacific region and the complexity of the task, the Group believed that the proposed development of aircraft movements at airports would not be feasible and that the Bangkok Office could consider collating forecasts already developed for the region's airports, in close cooperation with the States concerned, for the purposes of the work of various APANPIRG subgroups.